Another football season awaits, kicking off Thursday night in the Meadowlands as the Super Bowl champion New York Giants (who had them in the pool last year?) host the Washington Redskins. By the end of the first weekend, most likely there will be 16 teams that are 1-0 and 16 others that are 0-1. And that's all we'll really know for sure, in spite of all the preseason prognostications, fantasy league scouting reports and magazine previews--fact is, while you have a pretty good idea who at least eight of the playoff teams will be before the season starts, the NFL is very good at producing two or three surprise teams every year, teams that were once also-rans that suddenly become, for at least one season, one of the elite units. That's most of the fun of the pro football season and that's what my humble little, analysis-light preview will try to focus on--exactly which teams have the best chance of surprising as well as my take on who the best player is on each team this year.
Well, enough rambling. In hopefully three thousand words or less, I'll start with my favorite conference, the American...
WEST
1. SAN DIEGO (12-4) - This is a no-brainer. Despite their undeniable character issues (Phllip Rivers, this means you), talent and depth trump all else in the NFL and the Chargers are the league's most talented and deepest team. No one in the weak AFC West figures to give them much competition this year. Best player: it's still LaDainian Tomlinson, despite recent injury woes. He's the straw that stirs the Chargers' drink.
2. Denver (9-7) - UP AND COMING TEAM ALERT! In another year the Broncos could be scary good. They'll take some steps this year, as Jay Cutler matures into a Pro Bowl quarterback and the run defense gets (somewhat) shored up. But Denver is too young at too many positions and has too many question marks to make the playoffs in '08. Best player: Cutler, has supplanted Champ Bailey as the Broncos' MVP, although Bailey remains one of the top three cornerbacks in the business. Expect Cutler to throw for about 4000 yards and 25 TD's this season.
3. Oakland (6-10) - This team might not get back to the playoffs until Al Davis dies. That's the only way he'll stop meddling and stunting what little on-field progress the Raid-ahs make. I think JaMarcus Russell will be a very good quarterback sooner rather than later, but there's still not much around him. Oakland's best hope to reach .500 this year is to pound the ball with Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas (son of Huggy Bear!) and let an aggressive defense try to do the rest. Best player: CB Nnamdi Asomugha may be the best pure cover corner in the NFL.
4. Kansas City (4-12) - Herman Edwards is a good guy and a good coach in a hopeless situation and he will be fired after the end of the season, with GM Carl Peterson a good bet to go as well. The defense is improving--which is why I have them down for four wins instead of one--but it will be a year long struggle to score even two touchdowns a game. Best player: RB Larry Johnson. All the carries over the last three years are starting to catch up with him, but he should still be good for 285 carries and 1200 yards.
NORTH
1. PITTSBURGH (10-6) - Anybody can win this division and I don't think any of these teams are great, but the Steelers remain the most complete in my opinion. They can throw it deep with Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes or Limas Sweed, they can pound it on the ground with Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall and they can defend, especially against the run. Best player: SS Troy Polamalu can still change the game from the secondary.
2. Cincinnati (8-8) - I haven't given up on the Bengals. I know they have a prediliction for thugs and miscreants and that their defense seems to always be a work-in-progress, but to me they just have too many highly skilled players to be completely discounted. Yes, the Bengals could be one of those surprise teams I was talking about. But for now, let's go with 8-8. Best player: QB Carson Palmer. Fully healthy for the first time in two years, Palmer is as good as any quarterback in the NFL.
3. Cleveland (8-8) - I'm not buying the Browns. They collapsed down the stretch last year when their quarterback Derek Anderson remembered he was, um, Derek Anderson. They couldn't stop anybody all year allowing over 24 points a game. Their schedule this year doesn't have the cream puffs of '07--opening day is home vs. Dallas, for instance. Cleveland was the worst team in the league in the preseason (I know, I know, exhibition games are supposedly meaningless. So why does the league play them and charge full price for them?) If the Browns go into the bye 3-1, then I might be wrong, but I think Cleveland takes a step back this year. Best player: left tackle Joe Thomas, in just his second year, is the real deal.
4. Baltimore (6-10) - I heard the other day that the Ravens named rookie Joe Flacco their starting quarterback. I had to do a double-take and look him up because I could have sworn the guy on SportsCenter said "Joe Flaccid". He didn't, but the Baltimore offense still looks pretty limp in a division where you'd better be able to score touchdowns if you're going to do anything. Best player: Ray Lewis is the heart and soul of the Ravens' D but it's safety Ed Reed who dominates the most from his position.
SOUTH
1. INDIANAPOLIS (12-4) - Reports of the Colts' impending demise are greatly exaggerated--unless Peyton Manning's gimpy knee really ISN'T right. The depth has been eroded by free agency over the years, but any team with Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez on offense and Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders and Robert Mathis on defense is still a Super Bowl contender. Best player: Manning. Who else, seriously?
2. Jacksonville (10-6) - The Jags are a trendy pick to sneak into the Super Bowl (if any team could be said to "sneak" into America's premiere sporting event), but the recent shooting injury to one of their offensive linemen not to mention other injury issues on both sides of the line reveal a team more fragile than many might think. I like quarterback David Garrard a lot but for Jacksonville to become a truly elite team he needs better receivers to throw to. Best player: defensive tackle John Henderson.
3. Tennessee (9-7) - The record will get a lot better if Vince Young is ready to take the next step as a passer and rookie runner Chris Johnson is anything close to what he showed in the preseason. However, a brutal schedule (especially from October 27th through the Thanksgiving Day trip to Detroit) may derail any progress the Titans can make. Best player: DT Albert Haynesworth, the best defensive player in the NFL last year.
4. Houston (7-9) - This is a great division and if Houston were in, say, the AFC West, they'd almost certainly be a wildcard team. But if wishes were horses... Best player (tie): defensive end Mario Williams and wide receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson is the best receiver that nobody's heard of and Williams looks like a much better draft pick at this point than Reggie Bush, the Texans' other option in that famous 2006 draft.
EAST
1. NEW ENGLAND (14-2) - God, I want the Patriots to fall apart so badly but this is still pretty much the same team that won 18 freakin' games last year so you have to give them props. Coach Darth Vader Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Richard Seymour and company are still a large roadblock for any team coming out of the AFC. Best player: QB Tom Brady may be the most disrespected, underrated great player of all-time. I mean, good grief, I hate his handsome mug and smug demeanor too, but look at his record and look at the numbers. In the NFL any list of the top quarterbacks has to go 1) Peyton Manning 2) Tom Brady and then everybody else.
2. Buffalo (9-7) - UP AND COMING TEAM ALERT! Are they a playoff team? They have to beat out at least one team out of a group that includes Denver, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tennessee and I think they just make it. I don't feel great about the Bills because their quarterback and their secondary are definitely works in progress, but they have the running game they need for bad weather, the best special teams in the league and a pass rush that can get after teams something fierce. Best player: I'll go with defensive end Aaron Schobel, a little known player except among Buffalo fans and diehards who gives you 7-15 sacks every year and maximum effort on every play.
3. the New York Brett Favres (8-8) - Isn't Brett Favre awesome? He's just like you and me, putting his pants on one leg at a time. Boy, does he love to play football! He's having a lot of fun out there. He's having so much fun he'd play for free! (Or for several million dollars a year and your neverending adoration and idol worship). Brett Favre's good for the game! It just wouldn't be the NFL without him. He's thrown for like sixty kazillion yards. Brett Favre's a winner! Look at Favre's wife, she's hot! But she battled breast cancer, so that makes her human--what? The Jets? Oh yeah, they're just okay. Don't you want to talk more about Brett Favre? Best player: Probably Favre, if he's healthy and focused, but don't sleep on scatback Leon Washington who's a threat to go the distance on almost every play.
4. Miami (4-12) - They're headed the right direction and picking up Chad Pennington via trade was a stroke of genius (it immediately gives the Dolphins a credible passing game, which they didn't have last year) but this team is two years away from getting back into serious playoff contention. And they'll miss Jason Taylor. Best player: on a team with no great players, rookie left tackle Jake Long may already be the standout.
AFC PLAYOFFS: New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Buffalo.
AFC CHAMPION: San Diego
Coming next: The NFC preview will be posted as soon as possible, by Saturday at the latest.
Finally, the Quote of the Week
"I will personally stick a corncob up Rudy Giuliani's ass if he doesn't get off the stage right now!!"
--an unnamed source who is close to me ;-)
Peace.
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