MY OSCAR PICKS

Just getting in under the deadline...here are my choices for tonight's top Academy Awards. Where I disagree with the likely choice, I'll tell you who should win. And if there's a rare category that's completely wack, I'll tell you who should have been nominated and won.

Without further adieu:

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck.
Munich

WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD WIN: Crash
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Among fiction feature films, the only glaring omissions from this category are The Constant Gardener and Match Point. If they had been included, I still would have chosen Crash.

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck.
Steven Spielberg, Munich

WILL WIN: Ang Lee
SHOULD WIN: Crash was a better overall movie, but Lee's handling of his subject matter and ability to carefully control the mood mark him as the director who did the best job in this category.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Fernando Merielles for The Constant Gardener. It would have also been nice to see Peter Jackson (King Kong) and David Cronenberg (The History of Violence) get recognized.

BEST ACTRESS
Dame Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line

WILL WIN: In a minor upset, Felicity Huffman beats out Reese Witherspoon, who's popularity has peaked.
SHOULD WIN: Lamely, I've only seen one of these performances and that was Witherspoon's. I humbly have no opinion in this category.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: It was curious that neither Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger) nor Laura Linney (The Squid & The Whale) were noted, Allen in particular.

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Straithairn, Good Night and Good Luck.

WILL WIN: Hoffman. It's the second surest bet of the night.
SHOULD WIN: Nobody in this list did more to create their character and build a relationship with the audience than Howard.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jeff Daniels for The Squid & The Whale.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: George Clooney for Syriana.
SHOULD WIN: Matt Dillon for Crash.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Don Cheadle, Crash.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener. This is the night's one true sure thing.
SHOULD WIN: Weisz

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Crash

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD WIN: The Constant Gardener
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Batman Begins, Mysterious Skin, Pride & Prejudice

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica by Dolly Parton
SHOULD WIN: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard. Make fun of this song if you want, it's the only nominee that actually played an important role in it's film and was strongly identified with it. And it's catchy.

OVER/UNDER ON JON STEWART'S "BROKEBACK/GAY" JOKES: 14 or more

Enjoy the show Peeps! I'll be back at you with Oscar show analysis and much more on Monday or Tuesday...

Peace!