MY OSCAR PICKS & A Few Other Random Musings

Oscar, Oscar, Oscar Oscar...

As promised (and haven't you been waiting breathlessly?), here are my picks in what are arguably the Top Eight Oscar categories that anyone really pays attention to (with apologies to my pal Andy, who won an Oscar last year in the Best Live Action Short Film category):

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways

My pick: I managed to miss three of these films. How embarrassing! The story is that Million Dollar Baby (written by TV vet Paul Haggis) was a first draft. If that's true--and I'd take that story with a grain of salt--then it HAS to win because that never happens in Hollywood filmmaking.

Who should win: Sideways, or probably Motorcycle Diaries. Sideways was one of the most nuanced, thoughtful comedies I've seen in a long time and that is because of the writing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake

My pick: Eternal Sunshine... I've blogged about this film before. Really creative, emotional, intelligent and witty. And if you think about it, it's a sci-fi romantic comedy! Actually as much attention as this movie got, it was still somewhat overlooked, so what better place for the Academy to honor it then in it's most obvious category?

Who Should Win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, although I have a fondness for Hotel Rwanda. Call me old school, but Vera Drake shouldn't be nominated because, dig this, it's not put on paper until AFTER the movie is completed. You see, the cast and director Mike Leigh collaborate from his idea. Neat, but this does not constitute an original screenplay, tisk tisk...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda, The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer

My pick: Thomas Haden Church. I feel like the Academy wants to honor Sideways, but isn't prepared to give it the really big prizes. Church, a feelgood story giving the performance of a lifetime, qualifies as a natural. Besides, the supporting categories have all the surprises, don't they?

Who Should Win: Clive Owen. Sure, his character was unlikeable, but so was everyone in Closer. To me, his work was the most compelling in this category (aside from Foxx, but let's be honest, Foxx is really the star of Collateral.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer

My pick: In the most unpredictable and wide open category, the Academy finally gives Cate Blanchett her due in a squeaker over Okonedo and Virgina Madsen.

Who Should Win: I loved all of these performances--and would have added one more nominee, Regina King's backup singer (Francine) from Ray. I'd be happy if any of them won, but I thought Blanchett's Hepburn was the toughest and riskiest character to play and her performance is the strongest thing in that overrated movie.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

My Pick: Unfortunately, not much suspense in the top acting categories - it's Swank all the way.

Who Should Win: I'm not saying that Hilary Swank doesn't deserve it, but wouldn't it have been nice to reward the year's most startling film debut--Catalina Sandino Moreno in the woefully underseen Maria Full of Grace?

BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx, Ray

My pick: Jamie Foxx. If you get this one wrong on your Oscar Pool, you shouldn't be allowed to watch the Oscars for the next five years as punishment.

Who Should Win: Foxx. But if you were allowed to vote for a favorite lead acting moment, I think most people would pick that scene in Hotel Rwanda where Don Cheadle can't tie his tie. I'm not spoiling anything. Go see the movie.

BEST DIRECTOR
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

My pick: With nominees I'm not thrilled with, in a category I feel very unsure of, today I'm going with Clint Eastwood in a mild upset. I reserve the right to change my mind right up until the envelope is opened.

Who Should Win: I won't even go into a rant about who was overlooked in this category--Michel Gondry of Eternal Sunshine..., Michael Mann for Collateral, Sam Raimi for Spider-Man 2 to name a few, too little time here--but the bending over backwards to give Martin Scorsese an Oscar is getting embarrassing. I'm not one of those people who hated The Aviator (talk to my g.f. for that view), but in terms of direction, shouldn't we wait until Scorsese gives another genuine masterpiece before we give him the award? Or maybe we should send repo men out to take the award away from Kevin Costner, because that year it should have gone to Scorsese for GoodFellas. The Aviator looks like an expensive, handsome Hollywood epic that could have been directed by anybody more competent than Michael Bay. Personally, among this year's nominees I'd feel happiest if indie stalwart Alexander Payne got it.

BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Finding Neverland
Sideways

My Pick: Million Dollar Baby. Should Win: Million Dollar Baby

On Monday you can either hail me as your new God, or pillory me as the new Jeff Gannon. Silly me to put it all in black and white...

This Week's Sign of the Apocalypse

While returning from picking up lunch today I saw a cab in Los Angeles that had hubcaps sponsored by Virgin Celluar Phones. To paraphrase Oscar host Chris Rock, "Those rims were spinnin' , look at 'em spinnin, they spinnin', they spinnin', they spinnin'-for Virgin Cellular!" Ugh - I need a drink.

Until next week y'all, peace.